Globální emise stále rostou

Global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising as of the end of 2025, albeit at a slower pace than two decades ago. To meet international climate targets and to avoid even more dangerous warming, global emissions need to fall substantially.

The graph shows the trend in human-induced greenhouse gas emissions since 1970.¹ Emissions of all gases are converted to CO₂ equivalents (CO₂eq) – the amount that would have the same warming effect as CO₂ over 100 years.

Emissions have increased steadily over the long term, with the sharpest rise between 2001 and 2012. Since 2010, the pace of growth for CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) has averaged about 1% annually. F-gases have seen the steepest rise, exceeding 4% per year over most of the period, driven by growing global demand for air-conditioning and refrigeration. Only CO₂ emissions from land use and forestry (LULUCF) have remained stable or slightly declined.

Which gas is most important for warming?

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is responsible for over half of human-induced global warming, but other anthropogenic gases – most notably methane (CH₄) – play a significant role. Methane is far more potent at trapping heat than CO₂, but it is short-lived, remaining in the atmosphere for only about a decade. Thus, methane influences the rate of warming in the short term, but because CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere for centuries, the cumulative CO₂ emissions remain the primary driver of long-term temperature rise.

Research synthesized by the IPCC shows a near-linear relationship between CO₂ emissions and warming: every 1,000 Gt CO₂ of cumulative emissions adds approximately 0.45 °C to global temperatures. This allows us to calculate a “carbon budget” – the total amount of CO₂ humanity can emit before we cross specific thresholds, such as 1.5 °C or 2 °C (See also: The Carbon Budget: How Much Remains?). To stop further warming, we must not only reduce annual emissions but eventually stop adding to this cumulative total entirely.

What influences the trend in future emissions?

Global emission trajectories are determined by the balance between economic ambition and technological transformation. In emerging economies, the primary driver of rising emissions is rapid economic development (GDP per capita) and urbanization. While population growth contributes, it is the massive expansion of infrastructure, energy use, and industrial output required to lift billions of people into the middle class that exerts the greatest upward pressure.

In contrast, many developed nations have begun to decouple economic growth from emissions. In these regions, improvements in energy efficiency and the decarbonization of power grids are actively displacing fossil fuels. The rapid scaling of clean technologies – such as wind, solar, and electric vehicles – is now a major downward force on emissions.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), if current policy momentum continues, these efficiency gains and clean energy shifts could cause global emissions to peak by 2030.² However, the speed of the subsequent decline depends on whether technological improvements can outpace the legitimate economic aspirations of the developing world.

Footnotes

1. We use data from two sources. Data on CO2 from deforestation and land use change (LULUCF) come from the 2025 Global Carbon Budget: Friedlingstein, P. et al. (in review, 2025). Global Carbon Budget 2025. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint]. DOI: 10.5194/essd-2025-659. Data on other greenhouse gases come from the EDGAR 2025 dataset: EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) Community GHG Database, a collaboration between the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). European Commission, JRC (Datasets). [https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2025] ↩

2. See the Stated Policy Scenario in International Energy Agency (2025). World Energy Outlook 2025. ↩